Office-Office: Guesstimate

(Picture Source: www.dilbert.com)


One hears about informed guesses all the time (dubiously know as guesstimates), but all of us know (or can guess) how truly informed (read ill-formed) they can be.

Last fortnight saw a flurry of guesstimates being used in the office to give strategic direction to future plans. Super Boss was in town after an overseas meeting with big bosses from other geographies. Much Earl Grey drinking must have happened, for the man seemed content and before leaving for his holy seat in the capitol, said "We must do something in the chemicals industry."

The non-conformist immediately starts mapping the chemical industry trends with the company's services and draws up a plan. While being reviewed by the Ageing superstar, (don't tell me you expected Super Boss to listen to others voices?)  it is struck down with one red slash of his pen (without reading it of course). The reason: "Super boss has lost touch with reality. He has no idea that there is no scope for any of these services in this country." So who has the idea?

While one can guesstimate that Super Boss was guesstimating, can you make out that the Ageing Superstar was "super guesstimating"? (meaning: making a guesstimate of an existing guesstimate). This is a common value add offered by senior team members. Identify it by looking at the amount and extent of grey matter on the person's scalp. In case of women look at the amount of jewellery and make up; Less of either of these coupled with prominent use of white indicates a high probability of super guesstimating.

Taking a cue the non-conformist soon applies this guesstimate theory on a hospitality project and sends the "findings" to the Ageing Super star. His verdict: "There are no hospitality companies in this city. So any marketing activity here is pointless." Pointless to inform him that the management has identified hospitality as a "key" sector this year and that a flurry of activity is already underway including a mammoth collateral kit.

This is a classic case of guesstimate beyond reason (GBR) attributed mainly to complacency and seat warming. GBRs often come from those who are next in line to win the super boss title. GBRs are usually close-ended statements and the only way to open the discussion is by sharing facts such as "I read this report on the blooming hospitality sector in the city. We can have a first mover advantage if you spearhead this." A response to a GBR will never be followed by another GBR. If anything you might find yourself without work.

A week later the non-conformist, still at her job, gets called by the Ageing Superstar. He says "Hey! I saw your email. You know these hospitality chaps are b%^&*$#@. Pardon my language. But they are b!@#$%^&. I think it is pointless to market anything here."

This is the guesstimate by experience (GBE), a complex maneuver that only the experienced can deliver. Lack of patience, a strong opinion and reputation as a names dropper are usually the pre-requisites for a GBE specialist. If you think a GBE comes close to sounding like an opinion, do not be surprised, for it is an opinion. When you are subjected to a GBE, it is time to archive all related communications in that folder (read "put the past behind" and "start afresh").